Doomsday Clock
Updated: January 28, 2025
Reading Time: 9 minutes
What Is the Doomsday Clock — And Why Should You Care?
The Doomsday Clock is a symbol created and maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a non-profit organization founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and other scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project. Its purpose is brutally simple: it shows how close humanity is to a man-made global catastrophe, measured in symbolic minutes and seconds before "midnight."
Midnight does not mean the end of the planet. It means the end of civilization as we know it — the point at which humanity's own tools (nuclear weapons, climate disruption, disruptive technologies) could tip the world into irreversible collapse.
The Current Setting: 89 Seconds to Midnight
In January 2025, the Bulletin's Science and Security Board moved the clock to 89 seconds to midnight — the closest it has ever been in its 78-year history. That is 1 minute and 29 seconds away from the symbolic end of the world.
The clock is not a prediction. It is not a countdown. It is a scientific judgment, reviewed once per year, of how dangerous the global situation has become. The hands never "tick" in real time — they are moved only when the Board announces a new assessment.
Why It's Not Just About Nuclear War
For decades, the Doomsday Clock tracked only one threat: nuclear annihilation. Since 2007, however, the Bulletin has explicitly factored in climate change, and since 2019 it has warned about cyber-enabled disruption and disruptive technologies (including artificial intelligence and biotechnology). The clock now reflects the combined risk of every existential threat facing civilization at once.
History
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The History of the Doomsday Clock: From 1947 to Today
The Doomsday Clock was born in 1947, in the pages of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists — a magazine created two years earlier by scientists who had helped build the atomic bomb and were horrified by what they had unleashed. The artist Martyl Langsdorf (wife of physicist Alexander Langsdorf) designed the first clock face for the June 1947 cover. She chose 7 minutes to midnight because "it looked good to my eye."
The hands have been moved 25 times since then. Each move reflects a new consensus assessment by the Bulletin's Science and Security Board, which includes Nobel Laureates, nuclear physicists, climate scientists, and global policy experts.
The Farthest and the Closest
The clock has never been farther than 17 minutes to midnight (in 1991, after the Soviet Union dissolved and the Cold War ended). It has never been closer than 89 seconds — the current setting, set in January 2025.
Perhaps the most famous moments in the clock's history:
- 1953 — Moved to 2 minutes after the US tested its first hydrogen bomb. The same 2-minute setting as 2018.
- 1962 — The Cuban Missile Crisis did not move the clock. The Board decided not to react to short-term events, only to trends.
- 1991 — 17 minutes: the safest setting ever, after the Cold War ended.
- 2018 — 2 minutes: the closest setting since 1953, driven by nuclear modernization and climate change.
- 2020 — 100 seconds: the first time in history the clock entered the sub-2-minute range.
- 2023 — 90 seconds, driven primarily by the war in Ukraine.
- 2025 — 89 seconds: a new record. The world has never been closer to midnight.
Why 89 Seconds?
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Why 89 Seconds? The 2025 Warning Explained
When the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced the 89-second setting on January 28, 2025, the message was blunt: "The world has not made sufficient progress on the existential risks we identified a year ago, and in several cases the situation has worsened."
The Board cited four interlocking threats:
1. Nuclear Risk
The war in Ukraine has continued, with the ever-present risk that the conflict could cross a nuclear threshold. The erosion of arms-control treaties (New START, the INF Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty) has removed guardrails that kept the Cold War stable. Major powers are modernizing their arsenals and developing hypersonic delivery systems, adding new dimensions to an already fragile system.
2. Climate Change
2024 was the first calendar year in which the global average temperature exceeded 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels — a symbolic threshold scientists had long hoped to avoid. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and costly. The Board warns that the climate trajectory is now incompatible with the stability of modern civilization.
3. Disruptive Technologies (AI & Bio)
The rapid, largely unregulated deployment of generative artificial intelligence has introduced risks — from disinformation campaigns to the potential for AI-assisted bioengineering — that no existing global governance framework is prepared to manage. The Board explicitly called for stronger international cooperation on AI safety.
4. Geopolitical Instability
Global governance is weakening. The UN Security Council is paralyzed by great-power competition. Multilateral institutions designed to reduce risk — from the IAEA to the WHO — are underfunded and increasingly politicized. The Board's verdict: the international system is failing at the very moment when its tools are most needed.
Bottom line: the move from 90 seconds to 89 seconds is technically tiny — but symbolically massive. The Board does not move the hands for drama. It moves them because the facts demand it.
Timeline
Reading Time: 4 minutes
Every Doomsday Clock Setting Since 1947
Here is the complete record of every official change to the Doomsday Clock — 25 moves in 78 years.
| Year |
Time to Midnight |
Reason |
| 1947 | 7 minutes | Initial setting — dawn of the nuclear age |
| 1949 | 3 minutes | Soviet Union tests its first atomic bomb |
| 1953 | 2 minutes | US and USSR test hydrogen bombs |
| 1960 | 7 minutes | Perceived stability |
| 1963 | 12 minutes | Partial Test Ban Treaty signed |
| 1968 | 7 minutes | Nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and Asia |
| 1969 | 10 minutes | US Senate ratifies Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty |
| 1972 | 12 minutes | SALT I and ABM Treaty signed |
| 1974 | 9 minutes | India tests a nuclear device; SALT II stalls |
| 1980 | 7 minutes | Soviet invasion of Afghanistan |
| 1981 | 4 minutes | Ronald Reagan elected; arms race intensifies |
| 1984 | 3 minutes | Further escalation in the superpower rivalry |
| 1988 | 6 minutes | Reagan-Gorbachev arms-control progress |
| 1990 | 10 minutes | Berlin Wall falls; Eastern Bloc collapses |
| 1991 | 17 minutes | Farthest ever — Cold War ends, USSR dissolves |
| 1995 | 14 minutes | Nuclear proliferation concerns resurface |
| 1998 | 9 minutes | India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons |
| 2002 | 7 minutes | 9/11 attacks; US withdraws from ABM Treaty |
| 2007 | 5 minutes | North Korea and Iran; climate change added as factor |
| 2010 | 6 minutes | Copenhagen Accord; global cooperation optimism |
| 2012 | 5 minutes | Climate and nuclear modernization risks |
| 2015 | 3 minutes | Climate change and nuclear modernization |
| 2017 | 2.5 minutes | Rising nationalism; climate change inaction |
| 2018 | 2 minutes | North Korea crisis; climate change |
| 2020 | 100 seconds | First sub-2-minute setting — climate, cyber, nuclear |
| 2021 | 100 seconds | COVID-19; climate; nuclear risks |
| 2022 | 100 seconds | Russia's invasion of Ukraine |
| 2023 | 90 seconds | Ukraine war; rising nuclear risk |
| 2024 | 90 seconds | No improvement in global risk profile |
| 2025 | 89 seconds | Closest ever — Ukraine, climate, AI, geopolitics |
FAQ
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Doomsday Clock: Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Doomsday Clock a real, physical clock?
Yes — a physical clock face is displayed at the Bulletin's office in Chicago (formerly at the University of Chicago). But the "time" it shows is set symbolically once a year. It does not tick in real time.
Does the Doomsday Clock predict the end of the world?
No. The clock is not a prediction. It is a metaphor for how close humanity is to a self-inflicted catastrophe, based on the judgment of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board. It says: "the risk is X high right now."
Who decides when to move the clock?
The Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists — a group of scientists, policy experts, and Nobel Laureates. The decision is reviewed annually and announced in late January.
Has the clock ever predicted an actual catastrophe?
No. The clock is meant to be a warning, not a prophecy. Its value lies in focusing public and political attention on existential risk. The fact that no catastrophe has occurred does not mean the warnings were wrong — it may mean they worked.
Why is the clock at 89 seconds and not a whole minute?
Since 2020, the Bulletin has used seconds because the risk has become so acute that minutes can no longer capture the urgency. The move from 90 to 89 seconds in 2025 was technically tiny, but symbolically significant: it is the closest the clock has ever been set.
When will the clock be updated again?
The Bulletin typically announces the new setting in late January each year. The 2026 announcement is expected in January 2026.
Is the Doomsday Clock political?
The Bulletin is an independent, non-partisan organization. Its board is made up of scientists and policy experts from multiple countries. The clock has been criticized by both conservatives and liberals at different moments — which is usually a sign of independence, not bias.